Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in
Instantaneous Inflation Rates | Econbrowser
PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator
Info Finance
Excellent post by Vitalik on prediction markets and the broader category of what he calls info finance: Now, we get
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to
Spinoza is ten years old today
Happy Birthday Spinoza! The post Spinoza is ten years old today appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Source link
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1:
Revised Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argue we have been deceived by incorrect deflators. Rebuttal, showing the irreproducibility of their
What Kind of Macro Model is the Heritage Foundation Using?
From Heritage: Every dollar the government spends must first be taken from the private sector. Whether the government pays for
CatholicVote: “Two economists reported that after adjusting government statistics to more accurately measure inflation, it became clear that the country has been in a recession for the past two years under the Biden-Harris administration”
That’s the title of this article. Heritage Foundation Research Fellow EJ Antoni and Mises Institute Fellow Peter St Onge compiled the