UCSD Faculty Sound Alarm on Declining Student Skills
The UC San Diego Senate Report on Admissions documents a sharp decline in students’ math and reading skills—a warning that
Affordability sentences to ponder
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Creative Stagnation
Credit: Todd Lappin This is insane: Legislation requiring cars and trucks, including electric vehicles, to have AM radios easily cleared
Sentences to ponder
We find that interventions (e.g., busing) that move children to a more favorable neighborhood have large effects but lose impact
Growth Deceleration Relative to “Liberation Day”
Lewis, Mertens, Stock Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is down 1.1 ppts, while Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic
Conference Board Confidence Down Slightly
Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence
Prediction Markets Are Very Accurate
alexmccullough at Dune has a very good post on the accuracy of Polymarket prediction markets. First, how do we measure
Creative Destruction in a Nutshell
A good figure from the Nobel Prize Foundation’s Scientific Background to the Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt Nobel. The figure shows
ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM
I estimated three models, 2021-2025M08, resulting in adjusted R2 of between 0.54 (based on ADP data) to
Democracy and Capitalism are Mutually Reinforcing
Many people argue that democracy is incompatible with capitalism but they differ on whether democracy will kill capitalism or whether