In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down by 1.27 ppts. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports is on track to match WSJ forecast.
Figure 1: GDP (black), IMF April WEO (dark blue square), January WEO (teal square), April WSJ (bold dark red), January (red), GDPNow of 4/17 adjusted for gold imports (green inverted triangle), all bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, IMF, WSJ surveys, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
Economist Intelligence Unit now projects 0.1% contraction in 2025.