That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2 ppts difference). Here’s the implied GDP levels.
Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow (red triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, using Atlanta Fed adjustment for March 7 applied to March 17 (pink square), NY Fed (blue square), Goldman Sachs (inverted green triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasters (light blue), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs and authors calculations.
The 0.5 ppts downward move in the GDPNow since March 13th is due to the retail sales release, wherein m/m retail sales came in at +0.2% vs Bloomberg consensus +0.6%.
