Housing market outlook: home price forecast zig zags again

According to Freddie Mac’s latest forecast released on Tuesday, home prices will rise 2.1% in 2024 and 0.6% in 2025, marking the latest head-spinning turn, especially for this year.

In April, the mortgage giant said home prices will increase only 0.5% in 2024 and 2025, down sharply from its forecast in March, when it predicted prices would rise 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% 2025. 

Freddie Mac refrained from offering fresh home-price guidance between April and now, opting instead to switch to a quarterly cadence. That proved prescient as the dust has only recently settled from major upheavals in the markets and economic data.

A string of higher-than-expected inflation readings in the spring made the prospect of Fed rate cuts look more and more distant, sending bond yields and mortgage rates higher.

But that flipped in the summer as the latest inflation rate hit a three-year low, making a rate cut next month look more certain. And on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically confirmed that view, saying “the time has come” to cut. 

Mortgages rates have come down sharply in recent weeks and are edging closer to 6%, the “magic number” that some experts think will trigger more loosening in the housing market.

Freddie Mac sees a big surge in demand, mainly from first-time homebuyers. But other parts of its outlook are more mixed, similar to its big upward revision to 2024 home prices versus a more muted take on 2025.

“We also expect lower rates to loosen the rate lock-in effect to some extent, providing some boost to inventory—although it should be minimal, given the bulk of existing homeowners have locked-in rates below 6%,” it said. “Despite some loosening, the tight inventory (due to a decade of under construction, further exacerbated by the rate lock-in effect) is still expected to limit home sales.”

The result should be only a modest increase in home sales for the rest of the year and 2025, remaining below an annual pace of 6 million. 

Still, Freddie Mac remains optimistic overall and doesn’t expect the economy to tip into a recession.

“While prospective homebuyers continue to face affordability challenges due to high home prices, homeowners are experiencing significant wealth gains which makes them less vulnerable to adverse economic events,” it said.

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