ECONOMY

Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris…

2 months ago

Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship

Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in…

2 months ago

Instantaneous Inflation Rates | Econbrowser

PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator…

2 months ago

Info Finance

Excellent post by Vitalik on prediction markets and the broader category of what he calls info finance: Now, we get…

2 months ago

“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022

Thet’s  Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to…

2 months ago

Spinoza is ten years old today

Happy Birthday Spinoza! The post Spinoza is ten years old today appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Source link

3 months ago

Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start

Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1:…

3 months ago

Holy Frak

America is great. Here if you want further explanation. Hat tip. The post Holy Frak appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.…

3 months ago

Revised Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022

EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argue we have been deceived by incorrect deflators. Rebuttal, showing the irreproducibility of their…

3 months ago

What Kind of Macro Model is the Heritage Foundation Using?

From Heritage: Every dollar the government spends must first be taken from the private sector. Whether the government pays for…

3 months ago